After surgery it was off to Parliament for Des Browne’s statement on the Iran hostages incident and then the second reading debate on the Mental Health Bill.
Des was humble – but not too humble. He had made a mistake. Yes – Secretaries of State were not perfect. And yes he would set up two enquiries: one around the issues to do with why the marines got taken so easily and one to understand the wider issues of how to deal with media pressure and financial bribes to kiss and tell. Liam Fox (the Conservative spokesman) made – I thought – a complete pig’s ear of his opportunity by overdoing it and not listening to what Browne actually said. Nick Harvey (our man on defence) did better – realising that the story for money media stuff is indeed awful – but really peripheral to the main issue of how we could have gotten caught out so badly by the Iranians. Where was HMS Cornwall? Where were our helicopters? Why was there no warning of Iranian ships approaching our boat? Didn’t we have a look out? Or anything?
Anyway – Des saved his bacon with suitably apologetic stance – and lives to fight another day.
As to the Mental Health B: much of it is awful, but six key amendments in the Lords passed (much to the chagrin of the Government) – so now the battle in the Commons will be in Committee where no doubt the Government will seek to re-instate all of the their worst proposals and knock out the Lord’s amendments.
Got home around 11.00pm to the dreadful news of the murders at Virginia Tech. Just makes you feel sick.
HMS Cornwall could not come close because of shallow water, and because it is a far more valuable asset to want to bring in close to Iranian shore emplacements that could attack it. (Warships are vulnerable near land, where they can’t see things coming.)The helicopters were in attendance, but were there to protect the boarding party against the crew of the ships being boarded. Once it was clear the crew posed no threat, they withdrew.There was a warning of the approaching boats, but as they were a mile from the border, it only took a few minutes for them to cover the gap, and because they may have had a perfectly innocent purpose, and to leap about and point guns at every passing ship who comes near you causes bad PR. The Iranians can legally make innocent passage across Iraqi waters, and all we can legally do is escort them out again. They may have simply been coming for a chat. And as the only thing they could have done to physically stop them would be to shoot and sink them, either potential innocents before, or with our people aboard after, the helos wouldn’t have been much use.The crew were on board the ship when they were warned of the Iranian approach so they readied weapons and returned to the boat. When they got there, they were immediately surrounded and rammed, but as they were not in immediate danger, ROEs forbade shooting first. The ROEs were de-escalatory, meaning they seek to avoid confrontation, and their priorities are to not start a war without the government’s say-so, maintain operational security, keep as many of their people alive and healthy as they can, and bring the situation to an end as quickly as possible. Any cooperation within those limits that they believe will help in getting them released is recommended.The failure was in only planning for smugglers, pirates, and irregular forces, and not considering the possibility that Iran would use its regular legal forces illegally in an attempt to put a legal gloss on it. (Or if they did, assuming the risk was low.) Once captured, their behaviour was textbook, although the Navy’s PR people might have wished for less honesty and openness and more stiff upper lip.It’s been a PR disaster, largely because MOD didn’t properly explain their reasoning, but that’s better than a continuing diplomatic crisis with show trials and prison sentences extending over years, or worse, 15 dead marines “shot escaping” and a war we’re not ready for yet.If you want to ask questions, ask about the coastal patrol craft specifically designed for this task but currently in mothballs in Portsmouth. Ask about our failure to get full support from the international community – the UN, Russia, and Germany in particular. Ask about the funding of the armed forces. Ask them at what point they’ll accept that diplomacy has failed, which it will, and whether they will be ready to act when it does.After the end of WWII, we discovered from the captured German archives that Hitler’s generals had been horrified at the risk taken in his invasion of the Sudetenland, and had been preparing to overthrow him had there been the least sign of resistance. A single French batallion standing in their path and refusing to retreat would have brought the whole subsequent succession of events to a halt. Hitler said we would talk and talk and do nothing, that we would do anything to avoid a war.Hitler was absolutely right about us, until it was nearly too late. Hindsight is a marvellous thing – but what can we learn from it?