The Pre Budget Report

Pre Budget Report! Sky News had booked me from 11-1.00pm to be on their budget panel. I did it last year – and although it looked like two hours then, in reality my panel was whisked in and out a couple of times for two x five minute slots. So I assumed this would be the same.

However – this time I found I was on the anchor panel which means that throughout the time Adam Boulton comes back to the panel to comment on each bit of the process. My co-panellists were Stephen Byers (ex-Labour minister) and David Ruffley (Tory front bench).

Not being a member of the Treasury Team, I am always slightly apprehensive about covering the Budget and similar areas – but it’s excellent practise and there is no other way of learning. So I am grateful to Sky for the opportunity.

The Pre Budget Report was pretty much like a budget with Gordon Brown playing Santa Claus. When you listen to him (and we watched it live on a monitor) he is magnanimous – he giveth. He will save the British Film industry, back excellence in science, ensure more young people go to university, give money for investment in school buildings and so on and so on.

Blinding us with reports and statistics – Gordon likes big volumes of commissioned research (well who wouldn’t) to back up his arguments. By the end of his speech you would have though the world would be set to rights – albeit there’s still much to be done and a long way to go.

But whilst the impression is Santa Claus, as the day unfolds and the experts do their analysis – the gilt comes off the presentation to reveal the truths underneath.

Adam B asked what we thought of Gordon, Prime Minister in waiting. Stephen Byers said that he never commented on such matters. However, I was not so unforthcoming as I have for years now said on this blog and elsewhere that I think Gordon doesn’t quite have the finishing punch – albeit clunking. When the going has got tough for Tony – where has Gordon been, other than brooding in the background?

And despite his recent charm offensive – he is still comes over as basically a rather serious man with a grumpy look. He will frighten Middle Earth! I suspect when he is PM he will find Prime Minister’s Questions very difficult. He is not, as far as I can tell, quick like Tony in terms of retort and I have hardly ever heard him speak outside of the narrow focus of his treasury portfolio in the ten years he has been at No 11.

So – back to the budget. What Gordon didn’t deal with at all is the risk to the stability of our economy caused by huge personal debt. We in this country are responsible for one third of the debt in western Europe and three quarters of a million people have already defaulted on one or more of their mortgage payments. We are at a peak in terms of house prices which has happened three times before this century – on each occasion a rebalancing has occurred. That would knock 30% of house prices and destabilise the economy.

We are calling for the Bank of England to measure house prices in their targeting of inflation – otherwise we are at risk!

As for Gordon’s environmental measure – some good things but on the biggy (air travel) he chose to tax the traveller rather than the producer. Adding tax to each ticket doesn’t help force airlines not to fly empty planes. Much better if he had taxed plane journeys – as that would encourage efficiency.

Anyway – two and a half hours later I left to rush late to an interview with Russia TV about Mr Litvinenko. The Russians are clearly somewhat sensitive about their possible connection with these goings on – but I don’t think that stating that they will not extradite anyone is particularly helpful. Yesterday the Washington Post phoned for an interview too – a reminder of just how this story has caught people’s emotions and interest.